Research & Publications

Advancing risk intelligence
through rigorous research

Two books, 18 peer-reviewed journal articles, and 5 conference papers spanning Bayesian inference, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, derivatives pricing, credit risk modelling, fraud detection, and AI for public finance governance.

Bayesian Machine Learning in Quantitative Finance
Book · Palgrave Macmillan · 2025
Bayesian Machine Learning in Quantitative Finance
Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T.
The Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk modelling — derivatives pricing, stochastic volatility, credit risk, and portfolio optimisation under uncertainty.
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Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Methods in Machine Learning
Book · Academic Press (Elsevier) · 2023
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Methods in Machine Learning
Marwala, T., Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R.
Comprehensive HMC reference with applications in energy forecasting, option pricing, COVID-19 policy analysis, and audit outcome modelling.
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Journal Articles 18 peer-reviewed articles

2025

Predicting block delays in Bitcoin blockchain via Bayesian and non-Bayesian logistic regression

Mgcima, P.T., Mongwe, W.T., Olukanmi, P. · IEEE Access, vol. 13, pp. 82573–82585

Blockchain
2024

A novel framework for enhancing transparency in credit scoring: Leveraging Shapley values for interpretable credit scorecards

Hlongwane, R., Ramaboa, K., Mongwe, W.T. · PLoS ONE 19(8): e0308718

Credit Risk
2024

Enhancing credit scoring accuracy with a comprehensive evaluation of alternative data

Hlongwane, R., Ramaboa, K., Mongwe, W.T. · PLoS ONE 19(5): e0303566

Credit Risk
2023

A Signature Transform of Limit Order Book Data for Stock Price Prediction

Sidogi, T., Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Olukanmi, P., Marwala, T. · IEEE Access, vol. 11, pp. 70598–70609

Market Risk
2023

A novel workflow for streamflow prediction in the presence of missing gauge observations

Mbuvha, R., Adounkpe, J., Houngnibo, M., Mongwe, W.T., Nikraftar, Z., Marwala, T., Newlands, N. · Environmental Data Science, 2, E23

Climate
2022

An Analysis of Local Government Financial Statement Audit Outcomes in a Developing Economy Using Machine Learning

Mabelane, K., Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T. · Sustainability 15(1), 12

Governance
2022

Fusing Sell-Side Analyst Bidirectional Forecasts Using Machine Learning

Sidogi, T., Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T. · IEEE Access, vol. 10, pp. 76966–76974

Market Risk
2022

Shadow Magnetic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T. · IEEE Access, vol. 10, pp. 34340–34351

MCMC
2021

Bayesian inference of local government audit outcomes

Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T. · PLoS ONE 16(12): e0261245

Audit Risk
2021

Separable Shadow Hamiltonian Hybrid Monte Carlo for Bayesian Neural Network Inference in Wind Speed Forecasting

Mbuvha, R., Mongwe, W.T., Marwala, T. · Energy and AI (2021): 100108

Energy
2021

Locally Scaled and Stochastic Volatility Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms

Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T. · Algorithms 14(12): 351

MCMC
2021

Adaptively Setting the Path Length for Separable Shadow Hamiltonian Hybrid Monte Carlo

Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T. · IEEE Access, vol. 9, pp. 138598–138607

MCMC
2021

Quantum-Inspired Magnetic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T. · PLoS ONE

MCMC
2021

Utilising Partial Momentum Refreshment in Separable Shadow Hamiltonian Hybrid Monte Carlo

Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T. · IEEE Access, vol. 9

MCMC
2021

Magnetic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo With Partial Momentum Refreshment

Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T. · IEEE Access, vol. 9, pp. 108009–108016

MCMC
2021

Adaptive Magnetic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T. · IEEE Access, vol. 9, pp. 152993–153003

MCMC
2021

Antithetic Magnetic and Shadow Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T. · IEEE Access, vol. 9, pp. 49857–49867

MCMC
2020

A survey of automated financial statement fraud detection with relevance to the South African context

Mongwe, W.T., Malan, K.M. · SA Computer Journal, 32(1), pp. 74–112

Fraud Risk

Conference Papers 5 papers

2022

Creating Synthetic Volatility Surfaces using Generative Adversarial Networks with Static Arbitrage Loss Conditions

Sidogi, T., Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T. · IEEE SSCI, pp. 1423–1429

Market Risk
2022

Imputation of Missing Streamflow Data at Multiple Gauging Stations in Benin Republic

Mbuvha, R., Adounkpe, P., Mongwe, W.T., Houngnibo, M., Newlands, N., Marwala, T. · AAAI Climate Change Workshop

Climate
2022

Probabilistic Inference of South African Equity Option Prices Under Jump-Diffusion Processes

Mongwe, W.T., Sidogi, T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T. · IEEE CIFEr, pp. 1–8

Derivatives
2021

On Voter Characterisation in Developing Democracies

Mongwe, W.T., Mbuvha, R., Marwala, T. · NeurIPS AI for Credible Elections Workshop

AI Policy
2020

The Efficacy of Financial Ratios for Fraud Detection Using Self-Organising Maps

Mongwe, W.T., Malan, K.M. · IEEE SSCI, pp. 1100–1106

Fraud Risk

Postgraduate Supervision

Co-supervising research at the intersection of ML and financial risk.

Current
Phumzile Mgqima — Ph.D. in Machine Learning (UJ) · Bayesian Approach to Blockchain Arrivals
Abdullah Hassan — MSc in Statistics (Wits) · Probabilistic GANs within Exchange Rate Modelling
Keletso Mabalane — MSc in Statistics (Wits) · Normalising Flows for Commodity Option Pricing
Completed
Rivalani Hlongwane — Ph.D. in Machine Learning (UCT), 2025 · Machine Learning in Credit Scoring
Thendo Sidogi — Ph.D. in Machine Learning (UJ), 2024 · Machine Learning in Quantitative Finance
Keletso Mabalane — BSc Hons in Statistics (Wits), 2022 · Predicting Local Government Audit Outcomes Using ML

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